src/problems/lia.lisp @ 9b2cfb112dd6

(in-package :rosalind)

;; When a heterozygous organism mates, its offspring have a 50% chance to be
;; heterozygous themselves, *regardless of what the other mate happens to be*:
;;
;;         A  a       A  a       A  a
;;      A AA Aa    A AA Aa    a aA aa
;;      A AA Aa    a Aa aa    a aA aa
;;
;; Because everyone breeds with an Aa Bb mate, we don't need to worry about
;; tracking populations along the way.  Every child has a 1/2 chance of being
;; Aa, and likewise a 1/2 chance of being Bb.
;;
;; Because A's and B's are independent, this means there's a 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
;; chance of any given child being Aa Bb.

(defun bernoulli-exactly (successes trials success-probability)
  "Return the probability of exactly `successes` in `trials` Bernoulli trials.

  Returns the probability of getting exactly `n` successes out of `trials`
  Bernoulli trials with `success-probability`.

  "
  ;; For a group of N trials with success/failure probabilities s/f, any given
  ;; ordering of exactly S successes and F failures will have probability:
  ;;
  ;;     s * s * s * … * f * f * f
  ;;
  ;; There are N choose S possible orderings (or N choose F, it doesn't matter),
  ;; so we just sum up the probabilities of all of them.
  (let ((failures (- trials successes))
        (failure-probability (- 1 success-probability)))
    (* (binomial-coefficient trials successes)
       (expt success-probability successes)
       (expt failure-probability failures))))

(defun bernoulli-at-least (successes trials success-probability)
  "Return the probability of at least `successes` in `trials` Bernoulli trials.

  Returns the probability of getting at least `n` successes out of `trials`
  Bernoulli trials with `success-probability`.

  "
  ;; P(≥S) = P(=S) + P(=S+1) + … + P(N)
  (Σ (n successes trials)
    (bernoulli-exactly n trials success-probability)))

(define-problem lia (data stream)
    "2 1"
    "0.684"
  (let* ((generations (read data))
         (target (read data))
         (population (expt 2 generations)))
    (format nil "~,3F" (bernoulli-at-least target population 1/4))))